A Civiqs poll on January 21 shows President Joe Biden’s job approval among registered voters remains underwater in a mind-blowing 47 states.
President Biden’s favorable/unfavorable ratio remains optimistic in a single state, Hawaii, 49% to 39%. In both Maryland and Massachusetts, it is a statistical tie at 45% to 44%.
Further, the president’s current favorable/unfavorable ratios in five populous states he won narrowly in 2020 are awful. In Arizona, with 11 electoral votes in 2024, he is at 30% to 62%; Michigan (15 electoral votes) 33% to 59%; and Georgia (16 electoral votes) 32% to 58%.
In Wisconsin (10 electoral votes), he is 43% to 51%; in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), he is 32% to 59%.
These critical states in 2020 provided 73 electoral votes of President Biden’s winning total of 306. In 2024, they have 71 electoral votes.
Former President Donald Trump totaled 232 electoral votes in 2020, 38 fewer than the ‘magic’ total of 270.
Overall, Biden has little chance of claiming, and of the 25 states won by Trump in 2020, their average favorable/unfavorable ratio on January 21 was a horrific 27% to 67%.
Biden’s least disastrous result among the states is North Carolina (16 electoral votes, one more than 2020), at 36% to 55%.
The reapportionment of electoral votes following the 2020 Census increased the 25 red states by three and brought Trump’s revised total in 2020 to 235 electoral votes.
Switching only Georgia and Pennsylvania in November would give Trump another 35 electoral votes, with the presidency at 270.
In his 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton, Trump notched 304 electoral votes in 30 states.
Joe Biden won in the last election in five additional high-population states, and his current unfavorable/favorable ratios are also ominous.
In Illinois, Biden is at 40% to 50% (19 electoral votes, a decrease of 1); in Virginia, 36% to 54% (13 electoral votes); and in New Jersey, 40% to 51% (14 electoral votes).
In both Colorado and Minnesota (10 electoral votes each), President Biden lags 38% to 51%.
Four years ago, Biden beat Trump 55% to 42% in Colorado.
Revealingly, while Biden’s Delaware home state has only three electoral votes, his favorable/unfavorable percentages hover at a dreadful 35% to 54%.
Even in New York, which holds 28 electoral votes (one less than in 2020), Biden’s favorable/unfavorable percentages are precarious, at 42% to 49%.
As a result, the 2024 presidential election is shaping up as 1980 déjà vu, when the GOP challenger Ronald Reagan won in a landslide and amassed a vast 489 electoral votes from 44 states.
Incumbent Democrat President Jimmy Carter, now the second worst president in U.S. history following Biden, won only his home state of Georgia, with 12 electoral votes, along with Maryland, West Virginia, Hawaii, Minnesota, Rhode Island, and D.C., for 49 electoral votes.
Further, Carter was 56 years old and healthy in 1980, while the current president seems increasingly challenged by the inherent demands of the presidency of the United States at 81 years old.
Biden is also facing impeachment by the U.S. House of Representatives, and his son, Hunter Biden, has only recently been indicted on nine federal income-tax charges.
Among the registered voters in the January 21 Civiqs poll, only 35% approved and 56% disapproved of President Joe Biden’s job performance.
The unfavorable/favorable ratio graph during his disastrous three-year presidency shows a trend line stuck horizontally since late October 2021, at 36% to 54%.
If the charts were a true cardiogram of Biden, the prognosis would be “incapable of resuscitation.”
In short, a conservative extrapolation of former President Trump’s possible electoral votes this year is 305 from 32 states.
The optimistic projection for the former president is 380 electoral votes from 39 states and a minuscule 158 electoral votes for President Biden from 11 states and Washington, D.C.
