Mark Halperin, a political analyst, is warning that Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris may not win the critical background state of Pennsylvania, which could cost her the 2024 election.
“I’ve been asking people two questions in the state, national strategists to the campaigns — one is, who is currently ahead in the race, and where does Pennsylvania rank in terms of 1-7 of the states that Harris is most likely to win,” said Halperin during a livestream Wednesday on his 2WAY media platform.
According to Halperin, none of the strategists he spoke to ranked Pennsylvania as the most likely battleground state Harris would win, with one putting Pennsylvania near the bottom of the list of battleground states the VP is likely to win.
“As you can see here, this source of mine, whom I trust very much, a very smart person, put Pennsylvania sixth, the sixth most likely state for Harris to win. If that’s true and Harris loses Pennsylvania, almost certainly not going to win [the 2024] race,” said Halperin.
Although it can still occur, it would be “very tough” to accomplish, he contended.
Two insiders in the Democratic party that Halperin spoke with Wednesday who “know the state very well” backed the prediction.
The political analyst said they believed VP Harris was “not only behind” but “likely to lose the state. “
“They didn’t rule out that she could win it, but they thought it was unlikely. If you believe that…you can’t make her the favorite, and you almost can’t even say this race is a toss-up,” continued Halperin.
“This is the ball game, right? This is it, the question of ‘where do you get 270 electoral votes?’ If Harris can’t win Pennsylvania…very difficult to see what her best path is,” continued Halperin.
Pennsylvania is one of the seven swing states that determined the 2020 election between President Biden and former President Trump, and both campaigns are seen as the states that will decide the outcome of the 2024 presidential face-off.
National polls show the race remains close
National polls indicate the race remains close between the two candidates. The most recent Real Clear Politics polling average shows Harris holding a slim 1.9-point lead over Trump nationwide. In the state of Pennsylvania, they remain tied at 47%.
Both candidates will be in the Keystone State this week, where they will participate in next week’s primetime debate in Philadelphia.
On Wednesday evening, Trump headlined a Fox News town hall, and Harris plans to return to the battleground state on Thursday.
On Tuesday, political commentator Karl Rove warned Democrats that Harris’s narrow lead may not be enough for her to defeat Trump in November.
“On this day in 2020, Joe Biden was up 7.1% above Donald Trump in the Real Clear Politics average. And at this point in 2016, Hillary Clinton was up 6.3%. As you remember, the election came down to a handful of votes in a handful of states,” said Rove.
