A new poll suggests former President Donald Trump holds a narrow five-point advantage over Democratic presidential nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris in the battle for Florida’s 30 electoral votes.
Donald Trump, the GOP presidential nominee, stands at 47% support among likely Florida voters in a USA Today/Suffolk University/WSVN-TB survey released Tuesday, with Harris at 42%.
The survey of 500 likely voters in the Sunshine State indicates Democrat turned independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 5%, Chase Oliver, Libertarian Party nominee at 1%, and independent Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at less than 1%.
Florida was once the most significant battleground state in presidential elections. Former President Barack Obama carried the state narrowly in his 2008 and 2012 White House victories, with Trump edging out Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton to win the state in 2016.
However, four years ago, in his 2020 re-election loss, Trump won Florida by 3.3 points over President Joe Biden, the most substantial winning margin in the state in a presidential contest in 16 years.
In the 2022 midterms, conservative candidates surged at the state level, with Republican Senator Marco Rubio nailing down a third term in the Senate by over 16 points and GOP Governor Ron DeSantis winning re-election by 19 points.
“While not exactly a flashing red warning light for Trump, the survey is a caution sign for anyone who thinks the race will be a blowout in Florida,” said David Paleologos, Suffolk University Research Center director.
New voter registration numbers released in Florida Monday indicate Republicans with a one-million-person advantage over the Democrats.
That indicates a massive turnaround from only four years ago when Democrats held a slight voter registration edge.
“Given those circumstances, I was surprised that Harris is within striking distance, being only five points down,” added Paleologos.
Trump held a four-point advantage over Biden in Florida in June
A June Fox News poll, when President Joe Biden was still sitting atop the Democrats’ 2024 presidential ticket, indicated Trump holding a four-point 50%-46% advantage in Florida.
However, Trump’s polling margins over Joe Biden expanded following the president’s disastrous debate performance against his Republican challenger in late June.
President Biden’s uneven and rambling answers at the debate ignited questions over whether the 81-year-old president had the mental and physical abilities to handle another four years in the White House and sparked a chorus of calls from his own party to end his 2024 campaign.
Democrats rapidly coalesced around Vice President Kamala Harris after Biden’s mammoth announcement three and a half weeks ago that he was halting his re-election campaign and endorsing his vice president to succeed him atop the party’s ticket.
Since taking over as the party’s standard-bearer in 2024, VP Harris has enjoyed a surge in fundraising and bump in the polls.
The new poll indicates Harris matches Trump in Florida for voter enthusiasm, with 89% of each group saying they are somewhat or very excited to vote for the candidate they’re supporting. Enthusiasm among Florida Biden voters stood at only 60% in the USA Today/Suffolk poll from June.
The recent survey was conducted from August 7 to 11, with a sampling error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
