Iran, Russia, and China are intent on fanning narratives that are divisive to divide Americans in the lead-up to the November 5 U.S. elections and could consider inciting violence after voters head to the polls, said U.S. intelligence officials Tuesday.
Officials briefing reporters on American election security said foreign actors could consider violence and physical threats and are likely to conduct disinformation operations to undermine the election process and create uncertainty.
“Foreign actors, particularly Russia, Iran, and China, remain intent on fanning divisive narratives to divide Americans and undermine Americans’ confidence in the U.S. democratic system. These activities are consistent with what these actors perceive to be in their interests, even as their tactics continue to evolve,” said an official from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI).
The official said entities that influence, “particularly from Russia, Iran and China,” have learned from prior U.S. elections and are prepared better to exploit opportunities to stoke unrest.
The ODNI official added that those entities could draw on the same tool types they have been using in the pre-election period—particularly cyber operations and information—and might also consider violence and physical threats.
However, officials said U.S. intelligence hasn’t seen collaboration between Iran, Russia, and China in election influence activities. While foreign actors might seek to disrupt the Election Day process—in turn, feeding discontent—the voting system is secure enough that they couldn’t alter the outcome.
“Some foreign actors also can stoke protests and take violent actions during this (post-election) period,” said the ODNI official. “In particular, Iran and Russia are probably willing to consider at least tactics that would contribute to such violence.”
The top U.S. intelligence analytical body, the National Intelligence Council (NIC), released a declassified memorandum warning that foreign operatives almost certainly will amplify false claims of election irregularities after the vote.
The NIC also said they might utilize espionage and cyber-attacks to alter or disrupt public government and news websites, promoting confusion about the results and spreading disinformation about the ballot-counting process, particularly in races that are too close to call.
The U.S. presidential race is predicted to be tight. A Reuters-Ipsos poll released on Tuesday showed that Democratic presidential candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris had a 46% to 43% lead over GOP candidate for president and former President Donald Trump.
China doesn’t intend to interfere in the election and hopes whoever wins “will be committed to growing sound and stable China-U.S. ties,” said a spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in an email.
Iran and Russia previously have denied allegations of U.S. election meddling.
Foreign entities using AI social media to influence U.S. elections
The official with ODNI said foreign officials were using social media and other online operations to influence the U.S. congressional and presidential races, to disparage some candidates, or to support others.
The official, who briefed the media on condition of anonymity, said some social media posts are likely to be generated using artificial intelligence.
As one example, the official with ODNI pointed to a social media post on X this month that was generated by what he referred to as Russian influence actors that made a false accusation against Democratic Governor of Minnesota Tim Walz, who is the vice-presidential running mate for Kamala Harris.
The ODNI official said intelligence agencies assessed that Russian influence actors created the content. An agency media review showed “several indicators of manipulation” consistent with Russian actors’ actions.
That official said American intelligence concluded last weekend that the video was a fake and the product of operatives of disinformation and added that it was consistent with ongoing efforts by Russia to determine the Democratic presidential ticket by fabricating allegations against Walz and Harris.
American intelligence agencies have been assessing for months that Russia would prefer Trump to retake the White House.
At the Tuesday reporter briefing, intelligence officials said they expected Russia to amplify protests further if VP Harris wins the election.
“Russia would prefer the former president to win, and they would seek to undermine the presidency of the then-president-elect (Harris) more aggressively,” said the ODNI official.
The NIC said “Iranian actors” may try to publish content online that disparages Trump.
